Frequency based imputation of precipitation     

Fatih?DikbasEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(9):2415-2434

Changing climate and precipitation patterns make the estimation of precipitation, which exhibits two-dimensional and sometimes chaotic behavior, more challenging. In recent decades, numerous data-driven methods have been developed and applied to estimate precipitation; however, these methods suffer from the use of one-dimensional approaches, lack generality, require the use of neighboring stations and have low sensitivity. This paper aims to implement the first generally applicable, highly sensitive two-dimensional data-driven model of precipitation. This model, named frequency based imputation (FBI), relies on non-continuous monthly precipitation time series data. It requires no determination of input parameters and no data preprocessing, and it provides multiple estimations (from the most to the least probable) of each missing data unit utilizing the series itself. A total of 34,330 monthly total precipitation observations from 70 stations in 21 basins within Turkey were used to assess the success of the method by removing and estimating observation series in annual increments. Comparisons with the expectation maximization and multiple linear regression models illustrate that the FBI method is superior in its estimation of monthly precipitation. This paper also provides a link to the software code for the FBI method.  相似文献   

Impact of sensor measurement error on sensor positioning in water quality monitoring networks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Seong-Hee?Kim  Mustafa?M.?Aral  Yongsoon?Eun  Jisu?J.?Park  Chuljin?ParkEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(3):743-756

This paper studies the impact of sensor measurement error on designing a water quality monitoring network for a river system, and shows that robust sensor locations can be obtained when an optimization algorithm is combined with a statistical process control (SPC) method. Specifically, we develop a possible probabilistic model of sensor measurement error and the measurement error model is embedded into a simulation model of a river system. An optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal sensor locations that minimize the expected time until a spill detection in the presence of a constraint on the probability of detecting a spill. The experimental results show that the optimal sensor locations are highly sensitive to the variability of measurement error and false alarm rates are often unacceptably high. An SPC method is useful in finding thresholds that guarantee a false alarm rate no more than a pre-specified target level, and an optimization algorithm combined with the thresholds finds a robust sensor network.  相似文献   

Comparison of parameter uncertainty analysis techniques for a TOPMODEL application     

Binquan?LiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Zhongmin?Liang  Yingqing?He  Lin?Hu  Weimin?Zhao  Kumud?Acharya 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1045-1059

Parameter uncertainty in hydrologic modeling is crucial to the flood simulation and forecasting. The Bayesian approach allows one to estimate parameters according to prior expert knowledge as well as observational data about model parameter values. This study assesses the performance of two popular uncertainty analysis (UA) techniques, i.e., generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Bayesian method implemented with the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, in evaluating model parameter uncertainty in flood simulations. These two methods were applied to the semi-distributed Topographic hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that includes five parameters. A case study was carried out for a small humid catchment in the southeastern China. The performance assessment of the GLUE and Bayesian methods were conducted with advanced tools suited for probabilistic simulations of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to test several attributes of the simulation quality of selected flood events: deterministic accuracy and the accuracy of 95 % prediction probability uncertainty band (95PPU). Sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify sensitive parameters that largely affect the model output results. Subsequently, the GLUE and Bayesian methods were used to analyze the uncertainty of sensitive parameters and further to produce their posterior distributions. Based on their posterior parameter samples, TOPMODEL’s simulations and the corresponding UA results were conducted. Results show that the form of exponential decline in conductivity and the overland flow routing velocity were sensitive parameters in TOPMODEL in our case. Small changes in these two parameters would lead to large differences in flood simulation results. Results also suggest that, for both UA techniques, most of streamflow observations were bracketed by 95PPU with the containing ratio value larger than 80 %. In comparison, GLUE gave narrower prediction uncertainty bands than the Bayesian method. It was found that the mode estimates of parameter posterior distributions are suitable to result in better performance of deterministic outputs than the 50 % percentiles for both the GLUE and Bayesian analyses. In addition, the simulation results calibrated with Rosenbrock optimization algorithm show a better agreement with the observations than the UA’s 50 % percentiles but slightly worse than the hydrographs from the mode estimates. The results clearly emphasize the importance of using model uncertainty diagnostic approaches in flood simulations.  相似文献   

On the criteria of model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting     

Ke-Sheng?ChengEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Yi-Ting?Lien  Yii-Chen?Wu  Yuan-Fong?Su 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1123-1146

Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model.  相似文献   

Estimating overland flow erosion capacity using unit stream power   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hui-Ming SHIH  Chih Ted YANG 《国际泥沙研究》2009,24(1):46-62

Soil erosion caused by water flow is a complex problem. Both empirical and physically based approaches were used for the estimation of surface erosion rates. Their applications are mainly limited to experimental areas or laboratory studies. The maximum sediment concentration overland flow can carry is not considered in most of the existing surface erosion models. The lack of erosion capacity limitation may cause over estimations of sediment concentration. A correlation analysis is used in this study to determine significant factors that impact surface erosion capacity. The result shows that the unit stream power is the most dominant factor for overland flow erosion which is consistent with experimental data. A bounded regression formula is used to reflect the limits that sediment concentration cannot be less than zero nor greater than a maximum value. The coefficients used in the model are calibrated using published laboratory data. The computed results agree with laboratory data very well. A one dimensional overland flow diffusive wave model is used in conjunction with the developed soil erosion equation to simulate field experimental results. This study concludes that the non-linear regression method using unit stream power as the dominant factor performs well for estimating overland flow erosion capacity.  相似文献   

Abyssal and hydrated mantle wedge serpentinised peridotites: a comparison of the 15$$^\circ$$20$$'$$′N fracture zone and New Caledonia serpentinites     

Fiona?Elizabeth?Mothersole  Katy?EvansEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  B.?Ronald?Frost 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(8):69

Subduction of serpentinised mantle transfers oxidised and hydrated mantle lithosphere into the Earth, with consequences for the oxidation state of sub-arc mantle and the genesis of arc-related ore deposits. The role of subducted serpentinised mantle lithosphere in earth system processes is uncertain because subduction fluxes are poorly constrained. Most subducted serpentinised mantle is serpentinised on the ocean floor settings. Yet this material is poorly represented in the literature because it is difficult to access. Large volumes of accessible serpentinite are available in ophiolite complexes, and most interpretations of subduction fluxes associated with ultramafic rocks are based on ophiolite studies. Seafloor and ophiolite serpentinisation can occur under different conditions, so it is necessary to assess if ophiolite serpentinites are a good proxy for seafloor serpentinites. Serpentinites sampled during ODP cruise 209 were compared with serpentinites from New Caledonia. The ODP209 serpentinites were serpentinised by modified seawater in a shallow hydrothermal seafloor setting. The New Caledonia serpentinites were serpentinised in a mantle wedge setting by slab-derived fluids, with possible contributions from oceanic serpentinisation and post-obduction serpentinisation. Petrological, whole rock and mineralogical analyses were combined to compare the two sample sets. Petrologically, the evolution of serpentinisation was close to identical in the two environments. However, more oxidised iron, Cl, S and C is present in serpentine from the ODP209 serpentinites relative to the New Caledonia serpentinites. Given these observations, the use of serpentinites from different geodynamic settings as a proxy for abyssal serpentinites from spreading settings must be undertaken with caution.  相似文献   

Monazite trumps zircon: applying SHRIMP U–Pb geochronology to systematically evaluate emplacement ages of leucocratic,low-temperature granites in a complex Precambrian orogen     

Agnieszka?M.?PiechockaEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Courtney?J.?Gregory  Jian-Wei?Zi  Stephen?Sheppard  Michael?T.?D.?Wingate  Birger?Rasmussen 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(8):63

Although zircon is the most widely used geochronometer to determine the crystallisation ages of granites, it can be unreliable for low-temperature melts because they may not crystallise new zircon. For leucocratic granites U–Pb zircon dates, therefore, may reflect the ages of the source rocks rather than the igneous crystallisation age. In the Proterozoic Capricorn Orogen of Western Australia, leucocratic granites are associated with several pulses of intracontinental magmatism spanning ~800 million years. In several instances, SHRIMP U–Pb zircon dating of these leucocratic granites either yielded ages that were inconclusive (e.g., multiple concordant ages) or incompatible with other geochronological data. To overcome this we used SHRIMP U–Th–Pb monazite geochronology to obtain igneous crystallisation ages that are consistent with the geological and geochronological framework of the orogen. The U–Th–Pb monazite geochronology has resolved the time interval over which two granitic supersuites were emplaced; a Paleoproterozoic supersuite thought to span ~80 million years was emplaced in less than half that time (1688–1659 Ma) and a small Meso- to Neoproterozoic supersuite considered to have been intruded over ~70 million years was instead assembled over ~130 million years and outlasted associated regional metamorphism by ~100 million years. Both findings have consequences for the duration of associated orogenic events and any estimates for magma generation rates. The monazite geochronology has contributed to a more reliable tectonic history for a complex, long-lived orogen. Our results emphasise the benefit of monazite as a geochronometer for leucocratic granites derived by low-temperature crustal melting and are relevant to other orogens worldwide.  相似文献   

Thermodynamic controls on element partitioning between titanomagnetite and andesitic–dacitic silicate melts     

R.?H.?SievwrightEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  J.?J.?Wilkinson  H.?St.?C.?O’Neill  A.?J.?Berry 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(8):62

Titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of Mg, Mn, Al, Ti, Sc, V, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Zr, Nb, Mo, Hf and Ta was investigated experimentally as a function of oxygen fugacity (fO₂) and temperature (T) in an andesitic–dacitic bulk-chemical compositional range. In these bulk systems, at constant T, there are strong increases in the titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of the divalent cations (Mg²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺, Zn²⁺) and Cu²⁺/Cu⁺ with increasing fO₂ between 0.2 and 3.7 log units above the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer. This is attributed to a coupling between magnetite crystallisation and melt composition. Although melt structure has been invoked to explain the patterns of mineral–melt partitioning of divalent cations, a more rigorous justification of magnetite–melt partitioning can be derived from thermodynamic principles, which accounts for much of the supposed influence ascribed to melt structure. The presence of magnetite-rich spinel in equilibrium with melt over a range of fO₂ implies a reciprocal relationship between a(Fe²⁺O) and a(Fe³⁺O_1.5) in the melt. We show that this relationship accounts for the observed dependence of titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations with fO₂ in magnetite-rich spinel. As a result of this, titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations is indirectly sensitive to changes in fO₂ in silicic, but less so in mafic bulk systems.  相似文献   

The geochemical and petrological characteristics of prenatal caldera volcano: a case of the newly formed small dacitic caldera,Hijiori, Northeast Japan     

Isoji?MiyagiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Noriko?Kita  Yuichi?Morishita 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(9):79

Evaluating the magma depth and its physical properties is critical to conduct a better geophysical assessment of magma chambers of caldera volcanoes that may potentially cause future volcanic hazards. To understand pre-eruptive conditions of a magma chamber before its first appearance at the surface, this paper describes the case of Hijiori caldera volcano in northeastern Japan, which emerged approximately 12,000 years ago at a place where no volcano ever existed. We estimated the depth, density, bulk modulus, vesicularity, crystal content, and bulk H\(_2\)O content of the magma chamber using petrographic interpretations, bulk and microchemical compositions, and thermodynamic calculations. The chemical mass balance calculations and thermodynamic modeling of the erupted magmas indicate that the upper portion of the Hijiori magmatic plumbing system was located at depths between 2 and 4 km, and had the following characteristics: (1) pre-eruptive temperature: about 780 \(^{\circ }\)C; (2) bulk magma composition: 66 ± 1.5 wt% SiO\(_{2}\); (3) bulk magmatic H\(_2\)O: approximately 2.5 wt%, and variable characteristics that depend on depth; (4) crystal content: \(\le\)57 vol%; (5) bulk modulus of magma: 0.1–0.8 GPa; (6) magma density: 1.8–2.3 g/cm³; and (7) amount of excess magmatic H\(_2\)O: 11–32 vol% or 48–81 mol%. The range of melt water contents found in quartz-hosted melt inclusions (2–9 wt%) suggests the range of depth phenocrysts growth to be wide (2\(\sim\)13 km). Our data suggest the presence of a vertically elongated magma chamber whose top is nearly solidified but highly vesiculated; this chamber has probably grown and re-mobilized by repeated injections of a small amount of hot dacitic magma originated from the depth.  相似文献   

Experimental calibration of Forsterite–Anorthite–Ca-Tschermak–Enstatite (FACE) geobarometer for mantle peridotites     

P.?FumagalliEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  G.?Borghini  E.?Rampone  S.?Poli 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(6):38

  相似文献